The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has expressed strong confidence in Guyana’s economic future, predicting that the country will sustain rapid growth over the coming years, driven by expanding oil production, significant public investment and continued progress in key non-oil industries.
The assessment was set out in the IMF’s 2026 Article IV Mission Staff Concluding Statement, published on Friday after an official mission to Guyana from July 20 to July 31. The report describes Guyana’s medium-term prospects as exceptionally positive, projecting that the non-oil economy will achieve average annual growth of approximately seven per cent over the next five years.
According to the IMF, Guyana remains among the world’s fastest-growing economies, with strong performance across both the petroleum and non-petroleum sectors. The country’s real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) expanded by more than 19 per cent in 2025, following an extraordinary average growth of nearly 40 per cent in 2023 and 2024.
Oil production continued to exceed expectations, climbing beyond 900,000 barrels per day by the close of 2025, marking a year-on-year increase of roughly 35 per cent. Production levels remained consistently high throughout the first half of 2026, with new developments supporting higher output.
Outside the petroleum industry, economic activity remained robust. The IMF estimated that the non-oil economy grew by about 14 per cent in 2025, led by the construction sector. Agriculture, mining and manufacturing also performed solidly, reinforcing broad-based economic expansion.
The Fund noted that this positive momentum continued through the first six months of 2026, despite weather-related disruptions caused by heavy rainfall in some industries. The improving economy also translated into stronger employment conditions, with the unemployment rate falling to 6.2 per cent by the end of last year.
Inflation remained relatively moderate, averaging 3.3 per cent in 2025. However, prices rose slightly in the first half of 2026, driven by higher international food and energy costs.
Looking ahead, the IMF expects oil production to continue rising as additional offshore projects come online and existing developments expand capacity. Together with sustained government investment in infrastructure and national development projects, these factors are expected to sustain Guyana’s economic momentum.
The organisation also expects the country’s external financial position to remain healthy, supported by rising export earnings from petroleum production. As oil companies recover a greater share of their development costs, a larger share of petroleum revenues is expected to flow directly to Guyana via the Natural Resource Fund (NRF), thereby strengthening public finances.
The IMF highlighted ongoing government spending on infrastructure, healthcare, education and other strategic sectors as key drivers of future economic diversification and long-term development beyond oil.
Although the outlook remains overwhelmingly positive, the Fund cautioned that several risks could affect future performance. It noted that further oil discoveries, stronger construction activity and continued public investment could drive economic growth even faster than currently projected.
At the same time, the IMF warned that prolonged high oil prices could fuel inflation and erode competitiveness if appropriate policies are not maintained. Fluctuations in global oil prices also remain a potential challenge for government revenues, while climate-related events continue to pose significant risks, particularly to agriculture.
To safeguard long-term prosperity, the IMF recommended that Guyana maintain disciplined fiscal and macroeconomic policies while continuing to invest in projects that enhance productivity and national competitiveness. It also encouraged authorities to strengthen savings in the Natural Resource Fund to build greater resilience to future economic shocks.
The Fund further emphasised the importance of expanding economic diversification by investing in education, workforce development, job creation and agricultural productivity to ensure the country is well prepared for sustained growth.
Concluding its assessment, the IMF said Guyana is well placed to remain among the world’s leading economic performers, provided it continues to combine responsible fiscal management with strategic long-term planning and inclusive national development.