THIS past week, the PNC/R-led APNU signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) with the Alliance For Change (AFC). The MoU appeared to focus on starting the talks for the continued coalition to compete in this year’s election as one strong group of political parties that will try to unseat the ruling PPP/C government.
We heard that the MoU signed was just one part that spelt out the terms, conditions and rules for engagement. There is slated to be a next part of the talks that will deal with choosing the possible head of such a coalition, the presidential candidate and the division of ministerial responsibilities should the coalition win at the polls set for later this year.
Soon after this engagement, the AFC called a press conference telling the public through the media that their relations with the PNC/R/APNU was on “life support.” There had already been some fallout over information of the signed MoU getting into the hands of apparently the PPP and the public. It, nonetheless, said that the AFC remained firm ahead of the engagements with the main opposition party, the PNC/R-APNU.
When asked about this at his press conference later in the week, opposition leader Aubrey Norton poured cold water on the whole idea of the “life support” comment. He maintained that talks were slated to begin soon, within the next two weeks, but said that expectations of his position changing were not realistic, especially since he had been voted as his party’s choice for the candidature in any alliance.
Firstly, the AFC is clutching at straws and it is bluffing the public with the “life support” comment attached to Nigel Hughes. It knows that it will have no choice but to team up with the PNC/R APNU for a chance at power and a chance to remain in parliament with the current MPs position.
It knows it has little to no credibility left from its time in government, and its decision which cost it its independence in 2011 when it first coalesced with the PNC/R APNU.
So, it has started bluffing its way and using the strong-arm methods in the negotiations. It is bluffing the PNC/R with its decision to walk if the PNC or APNU cannot come around to its terms.
Secondly, the AFC wants all but is willing to give anything or very little. It’s parliamentarians and politicians are far inferior to those that the PNC/R has in its political armoury. They are more less likely to win votes or finance the coalition in the upcoming elections this year.
Moses Nagamootoo was their last star power and he wasn’t even a star by the standard of Guyana’s body politic. Hughes might see himself at the level, but with a significant political weight and baggage which is still not talked about enough by the media, civil society groups and other public commentators.
The fact that AFC is sending the signals of being distressed so early at the commencement of talks is telling, as it is suggesting a party that is in turmoil and desperate for attention.
Thirdly, the MoU that was signed bears a striking resemblance of the 2015 Cummingsburg Accord, save and except for some minor tweaks to make it appear new. What the AFC and PNC want to do is kerfuffle the public and the PPP into thinking that it will walk away from the negotiations with APNU to contest the elections alone.
If it does do this, its performance will be not much different than it was during the local government elections which left it licking its wounds after being defeated handsomely. It is dramatically seeking to upset the negotiations because it wants to secure public sympathy.
Thirdly, the PNC/R-APNU sees straight through what the AFC is doing and dodges it. It will leave no room for the AFC to have leverage over it, either in the negotiations or in the actual alliance that they are planning.
It has a plan to behave just as it did with the WPA and other coalition groups if the government is secured. The APNU will never change its modus operandi and behavioural pattern, not even Norton can inspire this change. It is in the political DNA and the party’s ideology to try to be the dominant partner in every way because the numbers matter, and political relevance is essential to winning an election.
Finally, so far, this columnist is always right. The AFC is a third party that is seeking to use the PNC/R to eventually get into political power and does not give anything substantial to coalition politics in this country. It is playing strongman politics but PNCR-APNU has experience in that regard because it was a strongman for 33 years in Guyana’s political history.
The AFC should know it doesn’t have the numbers, plans, experience and popularity to stand firmly as an equal coalition partner with the PNC, but the APNU is equally desperate for a playmate; so who knows it might just get its way.
Who can play the victim better?
Who can cry wolf the loudest when there is no one coming, the AFC or the APNU?
Who will win the upcoming elections? PPP/C!