One could say that public servants will be having one of their best Christmases ever in Guyana, given a generous salary and benefits increases package, together with the fast-tracked 2024 cash-grant of $100,000. Commentary this week have high praises for the Government team led by President Irfaan Ali, Minister Ashni Singh and his teams from the Ministry of Finance and Ministry of Public Service and the team from the GPSU.
With public servants generally celebrating the salaries and benefits increases awarded to them through a consensus agreement between the Government and the GPSU, the “what if” question takes center stage. What if Guyana did not have oil revenues? Would Guyana have been able to give such a generous package and if it did, could Guyana sustain such a generous package? Whether we have had a bad oil deal or not, what if the oil revenues were not there? Even with the bad deal, Guyana’s take in coming years will be bigger, meaning government’s generosity is not at its peak yet and sustainability is not a problem.
But what if? What if the Irfaan Ali-led PPP Government embraced the constant badgering from a small group of anti-PPP naysayers and leave oil in the ground because some of the naysayers insist it is environmentally reckless and irresponsible for Guyana to add to oil-based pollution or because some of the naysayers demand a halt to production until EXXON agrees to renegotiate the contract?
The answer, my friend, is plainly and simply before us, not lost in the blowing winds, because we all know, no matter what our education level might be, no matter where we live, that without the revenues from the oil contract, the 2024, and the 2025 public servants’ benefit packages, together with those from 2021, 2022 and 2023, would not have been possible.
Bad deal or not, the EXXON Oil deal has benefitted Guyana. WE could have done far better, but rather than “shoot ourselves in the foot”, Guyana under the astute leadership of President Irfaan Ali and the PPP General Secretary, Bharat Jagdeo, have ensured that the considerable benefits, even if they could have been far better, are preferable to leaving oil worthless in the ground.
This week, because of the pragmatism of the Irfaan Ali-led PPP government, the unthinkable happened. The President announced salary increases and other benefits for 2024 retroactive to January 2024 and for 2025. For more than two decades now such announcements were made arbitrarily since the unions representing public servants were never part of the decision-making. Their absence in the past was not the choice of the government; the unions made unreasonable non-negotiable demands. At the end of the year, governments simply decide on annual pay increase so that the workers did not suffer because of the stupidity and recklessness of their unions.
This year, therefore, represents a major milestone as the unions and the government worked together behind the limelight, quietly to arrive at a consensus arrangement. The Guyana Public Service Union (GPSU) was led by its VP, Dawn Gardiner. The team took a pragmatic, reasonable approach and arrive at one of the most lucrative packages for public servants ever in Guyana.
For most of the past two decades, the increases amount to about 5%, with government ensuring that the union’s unreasonable postures do not punish public servants. In the last several years, the quantum increased. This year, the double digit 10% increase to be followed by an 8% increase in 2025 means that overall the across the board increases since 2021 will see public servants across the board having salaries in 2025 that is 60% higher than in 2021. But the 10% (2024) and the 8% (2025) and the increases in other benefits will likely see the government’s public servants’ budget allocation with a bump considerably higher than the 10% and the 2025 8%.
In addition, adjustments would be made for some public servants to move up the band and increase their basic salary by between 11% and 26%, increases in uniform allowances, out of station allowances, housing allowances and increases in monthly salaries above the band stipulations for vocational and academic qualification between $15,000 to $32,000. For the first time, like doctors and teachers, 100 nurses will receive duty-free allowances for purchasing a vehicle. These increases would be adding billions to the national budget. But what if there was no oil money?
While the naysayers preach their self-righteous mumbo-jumbo, because the Irfaan Ali-led PPP government has ignored the naysayers, public servants would have seen their salaries increased by 60 to 75% since 2021. What if the naysayers had their way? Would the public servant salaries and benefits be the same?
The non-oil economy could not have afforded or sustain such enormous burden on the national budgets for years to come. Therefore, each and all time we hear the naysayers, each time we see the blazing headline in the Kaieteur News, demanding renegotiation or termination of the oil contract, all we need to do is reflect on the question “what if?”.
Right now thousands of Guyanese are registering in a data base that will be used to distribute the $100,000 cash grant for every Guyanese citizen 18 years and older. The same data base will be utilized as a template for future cash grant distributions. Excepting for the “sour-grapes” naysayers, every Guyanese citizen is happy to receive their cash grants. Incidentally, some of the naysayers proudly are in front of the line getting registered. Public servants and pensioners will have their cash grants fast-tracked and will receive their grants before the end of 2024. Subsequently, all Guyanese in Guyana will receive their $100,000 early in 2025.
But what if? What if there was no good or bad EXXON contract? What if the Irfaan Ali-led PPP, upon inheriting the EXXON contract, succumb to the naysayers’ demandsandarbitrarily terminated the EXXON contract, incurring the wrath of the developed countries? What if the Irfaan Ali-led PPPgovernment gave in to the naysayers’ demand to renegotiate the EXXON contract causing EXXON to halt production? What if the Irfaan Ali-led PPP left the oil in the ground? Would the government have been able to distribute $100,000 to more than 600,000 Guyanese citizens? Could the government have afforded the more than $60B that this cash grant program would have cost?
What if the Irfaan Ali-led Government refuted the sanctity of the EXXON contract negotiated and signed by his predecessor and Guyana became a pariah state? Look at the brutal reality faced by our sisters and brothers in Venezuela. Look at refugees from Venezuela scrambling and struggling to survive in other people’s lands, humiliating themselves just to eat and survive. Their struggles is our answer to the “what if” question.
For Guyanese who get sucked in by the recklessness of the naysayers’ constant noise, this is what they have to ask themselves – what if there was no oil money?
For those who want to renegotiate the contract, their reality is that Guyana would have had to reduce the 2024 budgetby more than $600B and even more in subsequent budgets. If the government accepted the naysayers’ demand that we do the “responsible” thing and leave the oil in the ground because of environmental impact of fossil fuel, then where would we have found money to provide periodic cash grants? In this scenario, the “what if” question is our brutal reality.
We all genuinely believe we got a bad deal andwe all know who is responsible for the one-sided deal. But one-sided bad deal or not, Guyana is still benefiting enormously. Maybe we could have benefitted more with a better deal, but renegotiating would mean we will have to wait for many years while the oil stays in the ground, with no guarantee we will ever benefit.
In that situation, cash grants like the present $100,000 per citizen 18 years and older would not have been possible.The cash grant for every child which will reach a minimum of $50,000 for every one of the 200,000 children in school would not have been possible, requiring more than $10B in 2025. We did distribute $10,000 per child in 2014, but we would have been hard pressed to increase it by much with the non-oil financing. The pensioners will receive at least $41,000 per month in 2025. With more than 75,000 pensioners, requiring a budget allocation of about $37B in 2025, imagine what would have happened without oil. For sure, we could not have afforded $41,000 per month for 2025, with the possibility of a bonus 13th month for the year.
In the first half of 2025, six new regional hospitals, at a cost of $US180M, will be commissioned with 450 modern beds, 50 ICU beds, 18 NICU beds, 18 new operating theatres, six new CT scanners and modern equipment in Regions 2, 3, 4, 5, and 6. By the end of 2025, a modern, first-world pediatric and maternal hospital, at a cost of $US161M, with MRI, a open-heart surgery suite, radiotherapy equipment, modern operating theatre and critical care department will be commissioned at Ogle. By the end of 2025, a modern new $US160M first-world, five-story hospital in New Amsterdam, five $US150M new modern two-story hospitals in Moruka, Bartica, Kamarang, Kato and Lethem will be in advanced stage of construction. Construction work will start for a new West Demerara Hospital, transformation of the Linden Hospital will begin. A new Cancer hospital will begin and the biggest health project in CARICOM history, costing more than $US500M will begin at GPHC. What if we did not have oil money?
A new high-span bridge over Demerara River would be commissioned in 2025, a new high-span bridge will begin construction over the Berbice River in 2025/2026. A new bridge will begin construction over the Corentyne River. The Highway to Lethem will be completed in 2025/2026. A new airport and stadium will be completed in 2025 in Palmyra, Region 6. By end of 2025 there will be no mud roads in Guyana, more than 50,000 new homes compared to 2020, and more than 25 new schools would have been constructed. And imagine, electricity cost would be reduced by 50%.
The fastest-growing economy, with a modern landscape, including new hotels across Guyana, is the talk of the world. There is a good chance that no matter which community you live in the mud dams which your parents or even you trudged through are now concrete or asphalt roads. What if, what if there was no oil money because the naysayers had their way?