Bharrat Jagdeo, Guyana’s Vice President, a former President and the UN’s 2010 Champion of the Earth, told leaders and delegates attending COP31 an uncontestable truth. He told them that they need to talk less and do more. Guyana’s Low Carbon Development Strategy (LCDS) was conceived and implemented by Bharrat Jagdeo and is today a best practice in the fight against carbon emissions, global warming, and climate change. Guyana’s Global Biodiversity Alliance, championed today by President Irfaan Ali, is another best practice in a world desperately trying to heal our global environment, plagued by pollution and loss of biodiversity. But while Guyana is doing our utmost, there are too many examples of others talking a good game but doing little to nothing to change the environmental and climate crises that are harming our world and destroying too many lives.
COP31, held in Antalya, Türkiye, is now history. There was much “good” talk. But will there be reciprocal action following COP31? For 31 COPs, we have had a hefty dose of good intentions, inspiring talk about fighting global warming and climate change, and healing our poisoned environment. In spite of the annual commitments made at each COP since COP1 in Berlin in 1995, the global menu of action has lagged far behind the commitments – our achievements have been “talk” and more “talk”, with only a glacier crawl when it comes to action.
Guyana’s delegation, led by Vice President Bharrat Jagdeo, was a formidable advocate for more action than talk. VP Bharrat Jagdeo urged climate negotiators not to abandon efforts to secure more ambitious commitments, particularly those aimed at helping vulnerable countries cope with the effects of climate change. He called on countries to take seriously the longstanding UN principle of common but differentiated responsibilities and respective capabilities, which recognises that countries have different obligations and capacities to respond to climate change. But he warned that such commitments must be backed by real action.
VP Bharrat Jagdeo passionately issued a call to delegates at COP31 for implementation rather than continued debate on the merits of the Forest Finance Roadmap with six financing options intended to support forest-rich countries, including Indigenous Peoples and local communities. Among the options highlighted were the Tropical Forests Forever Facility (TFFF) and jurisdictional carbon markets, which allow governments to generate carbon credits based on verified reductions in emissions across large geographical areas. He called on global leaders and countries to pass CORSIA legislation, open compliance markets, and operationalise Article 6 of the Paris Agreement to facilitate trading of carbon credits.
VP Jagdeo highlighted the COP28 agreement to transition away from fossil fuels, cautioning that the transition cannot occur without simultaneously developing and rolling out renewable energy programmes. The VP outlined a strategy that would simultaneously reduce fossil fuel production and consumption, expand renewable energy, accelerate electrification, curb deforestation, and encourage the adoption of emerging technologies. While arguing for the rapid expansion of artificial intelligence and other electricity-intensive technologies, he urged that global leaders must not ignore the risks and threats of such pursuits on global ambitions for energy security and decarbonisation.
But even as Guyana’s VP and other heads of delegation, including Presidents and prime ministers, urged more actions and less talk, there were formidable elephants in the room at COP31. One elephant in the room throughout COP31 was that climate scientists continue to predict an exceptionally severe, if not unprecedented, period of extreme weather, including a 2026/2027 “super El Niño”. Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the tropical Pacific Ocean continue to consistently record daily highs well above what has been previously recorded. These scientists continue to predict the strongest El Niño ever witnessed in the observational record.
Not surprisingly, the analyses, including those by the WHO, predict unprecedented heat-related deaths exceeding 500,000 and additional deaths from epidemics of dengue, cholera, and other infectious diseases. The predicted severity of the 2026/2027 El Niño and its impact have led to a call for the WHO to act under international law and recognise El Niño 2026/2027 as a public health emergency of international concern (PHEIC).
The primary climate metric for the declaration of El Niño and La Niña is the Niño 3.4 Index. The Niño 3.4 Index tracks how much warmer or cooler than 3.4°C ocean temperatures are. When the sea surface temperature (SST) in a standard designated area in the Pacific Ocean for a three-month period exceeds the 3.4 Niño Index by 0.50°C, an El Niño is declared. When it is at least 0.50°C below (cooler than) the 3.4 Niño Index, a La Niña is declared.
Climate scientists have been predicting that the 2026-2027 period will see one of the strongest El Niños in the last 1000 years. Analytical examination of the SST leads to the conclusion that the 2026/2027 El Niño is likely to be the strongest El Niño event since reliable records began. Noting that a weak El Niño is declared when the 3.4 Niño Index is +0.50°C, moderate at +1.0, strong at +1.5, and very strong at +2.0, the predicted SST for the 2026 El Niño is 3.60°C, well above the marker for a very strong El Niño.
Ever since records have been reliably kept, the strongest ever El Niño was recorded for 1877-1878 when the SST was 2.73°C above the 3.4 Niño Index and for 2015-2016 when it was 2.75°C. This means the SST used for predicting the 2026/2027 El Niño event is at least 0.80°C higher than the previously strongest El Niño events from 1877 – 1878 and 2015 – 2016. It, therefore, is not shocking that climate scientists believe that El Niño 2026/2027 will be the strongest ever recorded, a “super” El Niño.
We note that global temperature lags by about three to five months, and that means most of the 2026 SSTs will lead to higher temperatures in 2027, with the alarming possibility of 2027 being the warmest year on record. We need action, not more talk. Guyana’s leaders continue to act and “walk the talk.” It is why Guyana has responded better than most and will continue to be more prepared for El Niño 2026/2027.