WASHINGTON, DC — The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has concluded its 2026 Article IV Consultation with Guyana, highlighting the country’s rapid economic expansion, strong oil and non-oil sector performance, and favourable medium-term outlook while recommending continued fiscal discipline and measures to sustain inclusive growth.
In its assessment published on October 8, 2026, the IMF Executive Board noted that Guyana’s economy continues to expand at one of the fastest rates globally, supported by rising oil production, substantial public investment and growth across several non-oil industries.
Guyana Records Strong Economic Growth
According to the IMF, Guyana’s real gross domestic product (GDP) grew by 19.3 per cent in 2025, following average annual growth of nearly 40 per cent during 2023 and 2024.
Oil GDP increased by 21.1 per cent in 2025, while the non-oil economy expanded by 14 per cent. Oil production exceeded 900,000 barrels per day, while construction, agriculture, mining and manufacturing contributed to broader economic activity.
The IMF projects real GDP growth of 22.3 per cent in 2026, with non-oil GDP expected to increase by 10.2 per cent.
Labour market conditions have also strengthened, supported by expanding economic activity and continued investment in infrastructure and other productive sectors.
Oil Revenues Strengthen Public Finances
The IMF reported that higher oil revenues helped narrow Guyana’s overall fiscal deficit to 5.5 per cent of GDP in 2025, even as the government maintained substantial public investment.
The country’s external position also strengthened, with gross international reserves reaching approximately US$1.4 billion. Meanwhile, the Natural Resource Fund (NRF) accumulated approximately US$3.3 billion by the end of 2025.
The Fund noted that rising oil revenues and continued savings are helping Guyana build financial buffers, while investments in physical infrastructure and human capital are supporting non-oil economic development.
However, the IMF expects the fiscal deficit to widen somewhat in 2026 before improving in 2027.
IMF Calls for Continued Fiscal Responsibility
While recognising the country’s favourable economic prospects, the IMF stressed the importance of maintaining prudent fiscal policies to protect long-term economic stability.
It recommended developing a comprehensive medium- and long-term fiscal strategy to guide spending, preserve financial sustainability and ensure that the benefits of oil wealth extend across generations.
The Fund also advised that additional revenues from persistently high oil prices should be saved where appropriate, while public spending should prioritise productive investments and support for vulnerable households.
It further recommended improving the targeting of subsidies and gradually replacing broad-based price support measures with more targeted assistance.
Inflation and Financial Stability Remain Priorities
Average inflation stood at 3.3 per cent in 2025 but increased during 2026, reflecting higher international energy and food prices.
The IMF recommended continued monitoring of inflation, wage growth, credit expansion and exchange-rate pressures as the economy grows.
It also noted that Guyana’s banking system remains well capitalised and liquid, with improvements in asset quality. Nevertheless, the Fund called for continued monitoring of financial-sector risks, including rapid housing-market growth, lending concentration and cybersecurity threats.
Strengthening financial regulation and developing a comprehensive macroprudential framework were identified as important measures for maintaining stability.
Diversification Beyond Oil
The IMF emphasised that Guyana’s long-term development will depend on expanding economic opportunities beyond the petroleum industry.
Agriculture, manufacturing, tourism and other productive sectors can help broaden the country’s economic base, create employment and strengthen resilience against fluctuations in global oil prices.
The Fund also highlighted the importance of improving education and technical skills, addressing labour shortages, strengthening food security and expanding opportunities for private-sector development.
Investment in renewable energy and the Gas-to-Energy project is expected to support a more cost-effective electricity supply and improve the competitiveness of businesses.
The IMF also stressed the need to strengthen climate resilience through improved drainage, sea defences and climate-resilient agricultural practices.
Governance and Transparency
The Fund encouraged Guyana to continue strengthening public-sector transparency, governance and financial oversight as public expenditure expands.
Priority areas include completing outstanding cost-oil audits, improving the timely publication of public-enterprise accounts, strengthening audit capacity in the oil and gas sector, and ensuring consistent compliance with public procurement requirements.
The IMF also called for continued efforts to strengthen anti-money laundering, counter-terrorism financing and anti-corruption frameworks.
Economic Outlook Remains Favourable
Looking ahead, the IMF expects Guyana’s oil production to continue increasing as new fields come online, while non-oil economic growth is projected to average approximately 7 per cent over the medium term.
The Fund identified further oil discoveries, stronger construction activity and higher oil prices as potential upside factors. However, it warned that oil-price volatility, inflationary pressures and climate-related shocks could pose risks.
The IMF concluded that Guyana’s economic outlook remains highly favourable, while emphasising that sustained progress will depend on sound economic management, stronger institutions, diversification and responsible use of the country’s natural-resource revenues.