OF recent, there have been lots of quirky political transitions, unprecedented in modern Guyanese and Caribbean politics. The transitions have intensified since the announcement of elections.
So far, in my opinion, the PPP has been the greatest winner and AFC the biggest loser. However, to offer a more complete picture of the more recent cases of switched allegiances, we have to divide the timelines into two periods: 2005 to 2017 and post 2017.
Arguably, the modern political era started when the AFC was born. Both the PNC and the PPP suffered defections that negatively affected both parties at the ballot box. Right up until 2015, the AFC was the biggest winner of any defection scenario.
During that era, one would believe that the PPP was the biggest loser, in that, it lost its majority in 2011 and then lost government in 2015. Apart from benefitting from major defections, a notable feature of the AFC is that it was able to energise an entirely new corps of politicians. This meant that the only way the PPP could be kept in opposition was if the AFC continued growing or at the very least, held on to its political share. Quite the opposite occurred once AFC entered government.
Any sensible future growth trajectory would involve showcasing the new political corps. Instead, the middle-class political elite formed themselves into a tight leadership cabal, showcased only the known faces and in the process effectively sidelined young defectors and political newbies.
This precipitated a series of defections, resignations and abandonment that started in 2016. Some members switched to the PNC, others went to the PPP while others just quietly stepped away from active politics. The AFC’s undoing was essentially a reversal of roles that led to its growth and ascension. This reversal means that it will be safe for the analyst to predict a severe decline in the AFC’s stock of votes during 2025 balloting.
Usually, for the two large parties, one or two defectors do not move the needle at the ballot box in any significant or measurable way. There is no credible political analyst who can demonstrate that. For example, Odinga Lumumba or Joe Hamilton brought additional votes to the PPP after they moved from the PNC. This does not mean that they each did not add value to the PPP’s ensemble. I concede that this last statement is somewhat counterintuitive, but I will make that case in a separate column.
The natural instinct is for the party that suffered some amount of defections to downplay the value, while the party on the receiving side attempted to make a big deal of it. Recently, Aubrey Norton did just that. In trying to downplay the value of defectors from his party, he harked back to Burnhamite-era defections from the PPP to the PNC.
Norton, however, seems to be living in an alternate reality from over 50 years ago. Today, about three-quarters of the voting population is under 50 and political defections from that era (of persons either long dead and gone or in their 90s) have absolutely no bearing on the extant political realities.
Apart from the great migration of Forbes Burnham together with about half the talent pool of the PPP, the clear and consistent winner of defections has been the PPP. So, what is the value of Norton taking that trip down memory lane? Clear signs of living in denial while his party is not just haemorrhaging, but gushing like an open koker. I do not think Norton even understands the demographics of the gallery he is playing to.
Given our political history coupled with the current political realities, there are two major qualities that add electoral value to shifting allegiances — diversity and talent. If the two come in one person, the individual value is higher. Defections from the PNC, AFC and other groups add both diversity and talent to the PPP. The PNC had a few new acquisitions; quasi-defections from the AFC, quasi because those moving to the PNC have not really switched sides. Also, a few faces new to politics have declared their allegiance to the PNC, none of whom adds diversity to the PNC. Instead of adding diversity, the PNC has lost almost its entire stock and there is more to come. No wonder it resorted to subterfuge, to snare Juretha Fernandes (that came as a package deal with Rickey Ramsaroop) to add a mirage of diversity. These acquisitions are not likely to move the balloting needle in the positive direction.
On the contrary, without political sleight of hand or cunning artifice, the PPP has acquired tremendous political capital during the post-2016 season of changing allegiances. These acquisitions will positively impact the ballot box for the PPP, so it is reasonable to expect a growth in the number of seats. There is still a lot more intrigue to come before Nomination Day.
Within the last few hours, we heard about the resignation of two founding members of ANUG because its executives chose to associate with Team Mohamed. The PNC also suffered yet another loss in the person of Jermaine Figueira. The nation watches to see where all these personalities will steer their allegiances.
ANUG does not add value to Team Mohamed, except to piggyback on the financial capacity of the Mohameds to fuel their campaign trip. This is the route of political cowards who will be just as disappointed as the Mohameds, whose last hope for redemption from crippling economic sanctions dwindles along with scant returns at the ballot box. Team Mohamed is not a genuine political phenomenon, as some seem to think; it’s simply a wild excursion into an attempt to sanitise a sordid image of crime and racketeering.
Most of us are familiar with the concept of money laundering, right? How about using the democratic political process to attempt to mask laundering.
DISCLAIMER: The views and opinions expressed in this column are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of the Guyana National Newspapers Limited.