U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio has done what Guyanese and the world were waiting for all this time. He has not only pledged U.S. support to Guyana on the border controversy, but has also given a rare insight into its mood at this time.
Asked by a journalist what the United States would do if the Venezuelan military were to strike Guyana or ExxonMobil, Rubio said, “It would be a very bad day for the Venezuelan regime if they were ever to attack Guyana or attack ExxonMobil.”
He continued, “It would be a very bad day, a very bad week for them.” He made it clear that there would be “consequences” if Venezuela used forceful actions to solidify its spurious claim. Rubio said the U.S. Government would steadfastly oppose “the regional threats based on illegitimate territorial claims by a narco-trafficking regime.”
“There will be consequences for adventurism…There will be consequences for aggressive actions, and that’s why our partnership in that regard will be important,” the U.S. Secretary of State said.
In a nutshell, he did not specify what the Trump administration would be prepared to do against Venezuela. Instead, he pointed to the power and size of the U.S. Navy, implying the United States could take military action.
President, Dr Mohamed Irfaan Ali appeared pleased and satisfied. He said that he was “very pleased at the reassurance of the U.S. at ensuring the safeguarding of our territorial integrity and sovereignty.”
President Ali remarked, “We have a responsibility to our friends. The U.S. is a great friend of ours. The US would have made it very clear that they are ready to stand by us in our development, economic expansion, security, and in our defence. And I would say very boldly that such friends must have some different and preferential treatment…That would be the case…”
Firstly, it is hoped that Venezuela will take note of Rubio’s comments on the border controversy. They should know that Guyana, the U.S. and its allies are serious and are taking no chances. They are sending a sound warning to the Bolivarian Republic to end its provocation of Guyana. They are also signalling Venezuela to stop its acts of intimidation and threats — now.
In other words, Venezuela must stop sending its men, flights, vessels and ships into Guyana’s waters or territory. Notably, Venezuela has announced that it will soon hold elections in Guyana’s Essequibo region, but Guyana’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs and International Cooperation has since filed a new case at the ICJ, seeking emergency measures to halt Venezuela’s plans to hold an election in Essequibo.
It is good and fitting that the ICJ is expected to address new requests for provisional measures, given Venezuela’s announcement. Recall, Guyana has argued to the ICJ that the conduct of Venezuelan elections, which are scheduled for May 25, 2025, as well as all preparatory acts in the disputed territory leading to the holding of such elections, would violate “Guyana’s sovereignty, territorial integrity and political independence, as well as the court’s order [on the indication of provisional measures] of 1 December 2023”.
Similarly, Venezuela’s recent aggression occurred on March 1, 2025, around 07:00hrs, when Venezuelan Naval Vessel ABV Guaiqueiri sailed approximately 700 metres into Guyana’s exclusive economic zone (EEZ), near FPSO PROSPERITY. The Venezuelan naval vessel communicated threateningly via radio communication that FPSO PROSPERITY was operating in Venezuela’s EEZ before continuing in a Southwestern direction towards other FPSOs, to which it delivered the same message.
It is fitting that the incursion drew swift condemnation from the Guyana government, CARICOM, the Organization of American States (OAS), the Commonwealth, and key Western nations, including the U.S., the UK, and France.
Secondly, Rubio’s comment that Venezuela would be making a “big mistake” and risk the ire of not only Guyana but the U.S. is telling and significant. He is well aware of the situation with the controversy, and if not, the government certainly made sure of this.
His comment that ‘aggression and adventurism on the part of Venezuela’ will be met with consequences points to a chilling response that is already in the works should it display stubbornness. Venezuela would be miscalculating the strength of Guyana’s relations in the hemisphere and wider world, because it is a respected member of the regional and international community. It uses the diplomatic and judicial processes available to it to bring all disputes involving countries such as Venezuela to a settlement.
That is why on March 29, 2018, Guyana filed an application instituting proceedings against Venezuela with respect to a controversy concerning “the legal validity and binding effect of the Award regarding the Boundary between the Colony of British Guiana and the United States of Venezuela, of 3 October 1899.”
A background to the matter and as basis for the jurisdiction of the court, the Applicant invokes Article IV, paragraph 2, of the “Agreement to Resolve the Controversy between Venezuela and the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland over the Frontier between Venezuela and British Guiana”, signed at Geneva on 17 February 1966, and the decision of 30 January 2018 by which the Secretary-General of the United Nations, in accordance with that Agreement, chose the court as the means to be used for the settlement of the controversy.
Some think that Rubio gave a strong rebuke to Venezuela on Wednesday and expressed hope for peace to reign while the matter is being adjudicated by the International Court of Justice.
Thirdly, President Ali’s remarks are fitting and welcomed by all Guyanese who stand against the Maduro regime. Ali reassured the U.S. that they would have a strengthened partnership with Guyana that is based upon mutual respect.
His position was largely adopted by Opposition Leader Aubrey Norton. He did not criticise it on Friday when he was asked a loaded question by a journalist at his weekly press conference. He took issue, however, at a comment purportedly made by the Secretary of State and spent the time playing semantics.
Norton knows only too well that everything it says, Venezuela will use that against Guyana because they appear desperate and alone. This border controversy was never of utmost importance to the Venezuelans since there were so many other pressing issues such as the economic stagnation, which saw the country moving slowly into depression, political instability, poor governance, super-inflation and high cost of living.
The President, however, knows that Venezuelans do not want this fight, and so, he will have to temper his response and bring down the heat. President Ali has shown courage, empathy, strength and understanding, as well as a remarkable level of intelligence on the border controversy and building Guyana/US relations over the past four years.
Finally, the ball will have to be in Venezuela’s court. The next move will be pivotal, if any at all. Respect must be shown by Venezuela to international agreements, such as the Argyle Agreement, which has been disregarded time and time again. No one trusts Maduro and, by extension, Venezuela. Time will tell if Rubio’s remarks were effective and brought down the temperature, or caused the opposite. Tick Tock. Tick Tock!