In Guyana, some well-to-do naysayers, some of whom live in oil-rich countries, demand that Guyana becomes a “responsible” country: leave our oil in the ground and let our people remain mired in poverty. In Azerbaijan, where the Caspian Sea is dotted with mansions built by oil money, the world’s first-ever oil-city (Baku) hosted COP29 with a forceful cry that they will continue to promote fossil fuel, the “gift from god”. In the middle of the conference itself, the Chair held a meeting with investors to promote Azerbaijan’s oil and gas industry.
Not surprisingly, developing countries, particularly LDCs and SIDS, are outraged by the outcome of COP29, they having been forced to leave Baku without an ambitious climate finance goal being met; without concrete plans to limit global temperature rise to 1.5°C; and without the comprehensive support desperately needed for mitigation, adaptation, and loss and damage. It was not just a failure; it was a colossal betrayal by those who are responsible for the calamity.
The disappointment is that COP30, to be held in beautiful Belem, in Brazil, is already facing a gloomy prospect, given that President Donald Trump of the USA is likely to pull America out of the Paris Agreement.
COP29 was always going to be a disappointment, because the US$100B annual contribution which should have been reached in 2020 was not met, mainly because President Trump had withdrawn the US from the Paris Agreement. COP29 was expected to agree to an annual commitment of US$1.3T, but was able to reach agreement for only US$300B annually by 2035, less than 25% of what was expected. With America’s likely departure again from the Paris Treaty, even this paltry sum needed for mitigation and adaptation, and for damage and recovery losses, is now threatened with non-compliance.
Many will blame Trump for the betrayal by the major polluters, but global warming did not start in 2016, when Donald Trump became America’s President; and the failure to finance mitigation, adaptation, damage and loss, and recovery with an annual contribution of US$100B is not solely because Trump had withdrawn from the Paris Agreement. The agreement to reach US$100B was agreed at COP15, in 2009. Long before Trump had become America’s President in 2016, it had already become apparent that the developed North, which were mainly responsible for climate change, were going to violate the agreement. The danger we face today, as global citizens, is not just that the US$300B agreed to at COP29 two weeks ago is paltry, far from the expected $US1.3T, but that, collectively, the world will again be disappointed by non-compliance. It will again be a popular notion that the world failed because of the expected climate change denial posture of Trump’s presidency. The truth, however, would be that failure to reach the commitment would eventually be because almost all those who should pay for the climate change catastrophe would fall short.
Countries in the Global South (developing countries) were calling for a minimum of $1.3T (less than 1% of global GDP) in annual finance by 2035, to help developing countries to implement the Paris Agreement targets through mitigation and adaptation initiatives, and to assist in loss, damage and recovery initiatives, recognizing the historic responsibility of Global North (developed) countries for climate change.
COP29 commitment of just US$300B annually by 2035 has been a bitter disappointment, leaving developing countries to absorb destruction and death, which they cannot afford and are unable to take measures to address the climate crisis — a crisis for which they are not responsible. While there is no dispute that the developing countries are paying the price for a calamity they did not cause, those responsible have walked away from the table.
COP29 also disappointed the world in its posture towards fossil fuel production and use. While there are naysayers in Guyana demanding that poor little Guyana must take the lead and leave the fossil fuel in the ground, those countries which have developed wealth through fossil fuel are driving another message, summarized aptly by the incoming president of the USA, who screams out, “Drill baby, drill”.
CoP28 had called on all countries to contribute to transitioning away from fossil fuels, calling on traditional producers to not expand production, but begin to reduce production. Instead, the traditional producers pushed back on any mention of fossil fuel phase-out during the discussions on mitigation. For those among us who want Guyana to be “responsible” and remain poor while the rich get richer, COP29 should be a lesson for them.
In spite of annual disappointments, the Paris Agreement and COP1 to COP29 have galvanized the world in slow action. While we need greater urgency, world leaders have acted on the principle, well known in Guyana, of “one-one dutty does build dam”. Like COP1 to COP28, COP29 had its own meagre success, along with its myriad failures.
One of the meagre successes of COP29 is that progress in implementing Article 6 (carbon market) of the Paris Agreement was accomplished. Article 6 is intended to establish the rules for carbon trading under the Paris Agreement. Article 6 in the Paris Agreement is the replacement of the Clean Development Mechanism, a carbon offset scheme set up under the Kyoto Protocol which all but collapsed by 2010, after years of being rocked by scandals and profiteering. Hopefully, the rules for trading carbon credits would result in prioritising high-quality carbon credits, like those from Guyana, with systems to bar low-quality carbon credits…
Other reasons for optimism were deals on the Global Nitrous Oxide Assessment targeting action on N?O emissions. The UK has shown renewed leadership, committing to an 81% GHG reduction by 2035, and the EU made commitments on Methane Abatement. Nearly $500 million in new grant funding for methane abatement was announced at the annual Global Methane Pledge (GMP) Ministerial, bringing total GMP grant funding to more than $2 billion.