Washington, DC: An International Monetary Fund (IMF) staff team, led by Ms. Lusine Lusinyan, held discussions virtually and in Georgetown for the 2026 Article IV Consultation during July 20–31, 2026. The team met with Finance Minister Dr. Ashni Singh, Central Bank Governor Dr. Gobind Ganga, Minister of Parliamentary Affairs and Governance Ms. Gail Teixeira, Attorney General and Minister of Legal Affairs Mr. Mohabir Anil Nandlall, and other senior officials, representatives from the private sector, banks, labor unions, and other stakeholders. At the conclusion of the visit, Ms. Lusinyan issued the following statement:
Strong Growth
Guyana’s economy continues to expand at a very rapid pace, supported by robust oil and non-oil activity. Real GDP grew by over 19 percent in 2025, following average growth of nearly 40 percent during 2023–24. Oil production exceeded expectations and surpassed 900,000 barrels per day by the end of 2025—an impressive 35 percent increase over one year, with similar volumes recorded in the first half of 2026. Encouragingly, broad-based growth in the non-oil economy continued at about 14 percent, with construction remaining the largest driver, and agriculture, mining, and manufacturing also contributing meaningfully. These trends broadly continued in the first half of 2026 though some sectors were affected by heavy rainfall. Robust growth was also reflected in a stronger labor market, with unemployment down at 6.2 percent by the end of 2025. Average inflation was contained to 3.3 percent in 2025 but edged up by mid-2026, reflecting higher global energy and food prices.
The fiscal and external positions improved in 2025, and credit growth remained strong. The overall fiscal deficit narrowed by nearly two percentage points to 5.5 percent of GDP in 2025. Large public investment continued, and oil revenue more than offset the decline in non-oil revenue. The non-oil primary deficit amounted to one third of non-oil GDP. Public sector credit helped finance the fiscal deficit, and private credit supported economic activity, especially through household credit and business lending across the real sector. Strong foreign exchange (FX) demand, especially from private investment with heavy import content, kept the FX market tight. At the same time, rising oil production and a decline in oil-related service imports strengthened the external position, which is assessed to be broadly in line with the level implied by fundamentals and desirable policies in 2025.
Prudent macroeconomic policies continue to support growth. Building on the Low Carbon Development Strategy 2030, the government’s five-year development plan maintains a welcome focus on economic diversification, resilience, and sustainability. Continued accumulation of oil revenue in the Natural Resource Fund (NRF) is helping build external and fiscal buffers, while large investments in physical and human capital are supporting non-oil growth and improving outcomes, especially in health and education. Tight monetary conditions have helped maintain price and exchange rate stability, while fiscal measures have cushioned near-term price pressures. These policies, together with continued strengthening of governance frameworks, have helped sustain macroeconomic stability, support growth, and advance national development priorities. Available indicators do not point to clear signs of overheating or resource-driven competitiveness pressures. But strong wage growth and wage-based real exchange rate indicators warrant close monitoring.
Outlook and Risks
The economic outlook remains highly favorable. Oil production is expected to continue expanding, and the non-oil economy is projected to grow by about 7 percent on average over the next five years as the government continues its ambitious plans to address infrastructure and developmental needs. The external position is expected to remain strong over the medium term, supported by higher oil production as new fields come onstream and existing projects mature. High oil prices strengthen the outlook for export earnings and the fiscal position going forward. As oil operators complete cost recovery, a larger share of oil revenues will accrue to Guyana through higher NRF inflows.
Risks around the near-term outlook are broadly balanced in the context of elevated global uncertainty. On the upside, further oil discoveries would continue to improve growth prospects, and construction growth and strong public investment may support higher than expected short-term non-oil growth. Higher oil prices would further improve fiscal and external accounts but could also intensify overheating pressures, leading to real exchange rate appreciation beyond the level consistent with a balanced expansion of the economy, with oil price volatility adding to fiscal risks. Adverse climate shocks may also negatively impact the economy.
Fiscal Policy
Staff commends the authorities for sustained prudent fiscal policies. The fiscal deficit is expected to widen somewhat in 2026 due to social transfers and electricity subsidies but improve in 2027 given the one-year lag in the NRF withdrawal rule. If oil prices remain persistently high, a larger share of additional oil revenue should be saved, in line with the economy’s absorptive capacity. Public spending should continue to prioritize productivity-enhancing projects and support the most vulnerable. Policy efforts should remain focused on strengthening monitoring of spending outcomes and oversight of public enterprises. Staff urged that consideration be given to improving the targeting of subsidies. Over time, broad price-mitigating measures should be gradually phased out, as they can weaken price signals. The authorities’ prudent borrowing strategy continues to support debt sustainability, with the risk of debt distress assessed as low, as in the previous assessment.
Reflecting strong commitment to fiscal responsibility, policies have supported rapid accumulation of substantial NRF balances and one of the lowest debt-to-GDP ratios in the hemisphere. The budget documents already provide detailed medium-term projections, performance indicators, and macroeconomic assumptions, offering a robust foundation for further developing medium- and long-term fiscal guideposts as the economy continues to transform. To help guide the balance between spending now and the needs of future generations, the non-oil primary balance could serve as the main operational target, strengthening gradually over the next decade to a level consistent with a chosen long-run anchor. During the transition period, public spending should continue to be aligned with peer-country levels of Sustainable Development Goal-related expenditure—taking into account the higher cost of public service delivery in a low population density country such as Guyana. Staff will continue to engage with the authorities on how best to calibrate medium- and long-term fiscal guideposts to Guyana’s development needs and absorptive capacity.
Monetary and Exchange Rate Policy
Monetary policy should remain consistent with the stabilized exchange rate arrangement and price stability. Policy continues to operate within a reserve money targeting regime, with liquidity management—primarily through FX operations—helping moderate base money growth. Broad money growth should remain broadly aligned with nominal non-oil GDP, with liquidity managed through FX operations, as needed, in addition to greater use of treasury bills and reserve requirements. Additional tightening would be warranted if demand pressures intensify, credit accelerates, or exchange rate pressures emerge.
Over time, as Guyana’s economy expands and diversifies, incomes rise, and FX demand persists, the monetary framework should be strengthened by activating the interest rate channel, deepening financial markets, improving macroprudential tools, and gradually scaling back broad price-mitigating measures. These steps would enhance monetary transmission and further support macroeconomic stability. The current stabilized exchange rate regime remains appropriate, and over the medium term, as policy frameworks mature and the economy diversifies further, consideration could be given to allowing greater exchange rate flexibility to facilitate macroeconomic adjustment and enhance resilience to shocks.
Financial Stability
The banking sector remains well capitalized, with robust liquidity buffers and improving asset quality. Stress tests continue to suggest that banks remain resilient under reasonable adverse scenarios. Staff welcomes the authorities’ continued vigilance in safeguarding financial stability, including concentration risks. Developing a comprehensive macroprudential framework, including through technical assistance, would further help safeguard financial stability, and enhance policy formulation and implementation. Rapid growth in the housing market, largely supported by public housing investment, warrants continued close monitoring, and developing a real estate price index would strengthen the financial stability toolkit. Data collection on corporate and household balance sheets would further support risk monitoring and banking supervision, and cybersecurity standards should be further enhanced as digitalization of services expands.
Governance
Staff welcomes ongoing efforts to further enhance public sector transparency and service delivery, supported by digitalization. The authorities are advancing digital solutions across key public services, including interoperability of management information systems. Timely audits of available financial accounts continue, supported also by efforts to strengthen internal audit practices. Staff acknowledges the authorities’ efforts to resolve outstanding cost-oil audits, including through arbitration. Given their fiscal and governance implications, resolving these audits in a timely manner remains important. Improving timeliness of financial accounts of public enterprises and agencies also remains a priority. The authorities are encouraged to continue strengthening audit capacity, especially in oil and gas sector. As public expenditure expands rapidly, ongoing efforts to further strengthen public procurement practices and ensure consistent compliance with the procurement framework will help safeguard spending quality, supported by the new centralized digital platform.
Staff welcomes the authorities’ strong commitment to strengthening AML/CFT and anti-corruption frameworks. The authorities are pursuing a comprehensive approach to AML/CFT, including steps to address vulnerabilities identified in Guyana’s 2024 Mutual Evaluation Report by the Caribbean Financial Action Task Force and preparing new AML legislation along with modernizing the relevant legislative frameworks. Staff commends the authorities’ efforts to strengthen oversight and transparency of the gold mining sector, with the planned risk assessment of extractive industries expected to contribute to identifying remaining gaps and informing further reforms. While some beneficial ownership information is already publicly available, facilitating public access and enhancing monitoring and enforcement of reporting requirements would further support transparency. Continued strengthening of the Integrity Commission, including compliance with and enforcement of asset declaration requirements, will also reinforce the broader anti-corruption framework.
Climate, Energy, and Diversification
Guyana remains at the forefront of market-based forest conservation while advancing its transition to a cleaner and more cost-effective energy mix. Staff welcomes the authorities’ strong commitment to strengthening resilience to climate-related risks and protecting biodiversity. Efforts to bolster resilience to natural disasters are advancing through investments in sea defenses and drainage infrastructure alongside investments in more climate resilient agriculture. The Gas-to-Energy project is expected to significantly reduce reliance on fuel-based power generation by 2027, with limited use subsequently as demand expands, lowering energy costs and supporting long-term competitiveness.
Efforts to strengthen human capital, expand job opportunities, and enhance food security remain central to the authorities’ broader diversification strategy. The Local Content framework continues to support private sector development, while higher personal income tax thresholds are helping to encourage labor force participation. Reforms to address labor shortages should continue, including to strengthen skills and better align the workforce with the needs of a rapidly expanding economy. Ongoing initiatives to boost agricultural production and reduce regional food import dependence will support export diversification and enhance food security.
Economic Statistics
Staff welcomes the authorities’ continued efforts to strengthen official statistics to better reflect the economy’s transformation. These efforts include enhancing external and real sector statistics, including with technical assistance, as well as resuming regular labor force surveys and publishing preliminary census results. While progress continues in these areas, advancing work on updating national accounts, price, and external sector statistics remains a key priority. Together with maintaining regular updates to the labor force survey and the planned rollout of a new household budget survey, these efforts are important to strengthen the information base for policymaking and assess the impact of policies on economic growth and living standards.
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The mission would like to thank the authorities of Guyana and all other counterparts for the constructive and candid policy dialogue, strong and productive engagement, and generous hospitality.