As discussions surrounding a local oil refinery return to the fore, the project’s viability hinges on the scale of production and the ability to attract the right investment, according to financial analyst Joel Bhagwandin.
He told Ignite News that a key consideration for the project is whether the Government will maintain its original approach of a 30,000-barrel-per-day domestic oil refinery or scale up production to target external markets and attract the necessary foreign investment.
He reasoned that if foreign investors are brought into the mix, scalability becomes an important factor.
“It has to be at scale and it has to be bankable in order to justify foreign capital,” Bhagwandin said.
He noted that previous discussions have seen foreign investors calling for as much as 600,000 barrels of crude to be refined daily for the project to be viable.
Under this approach, factors such as the global market, existing suppliers, pricing, market gaps, and even the shift towards renewable energy would have to be considered.
He said, however, that if the Government’s position is to finance a domestic oil refinery through a local public-private partnership, the investment must be strategic, requiring a smaller refinery given the limitations of local capital capacity.
With several key questions still to be answered, Bhagwandin said his advisory firm is undertaking a study to address the various considerations, with the aim of providing a credible, investment-grade position to advance the national discourse and guide policy decisions regarding the project.